Kanban guide · Kanban basics
Kanban Planning: How to Plan and Forecast Without Sprints
Kanban has no sprints, but it is far from unplanned. Kanban teams plan continuously and use their own flow data to make reliable, probabilistic forecasts.
Key takeaways
- Kanban plans continuously through replenishment.
- Service level expectations come from cycle time data.
- Forecast with throughput and probabilities, not single dates.
Continuous planning
- Backlog: options the team might work on, ordered by value and urgency.
- Replenishment: at regular meetings, the team and stakeholders choose which options to make ready.
- Commitment point: when a card crosses it, the team commits to finishing it.
- Delivery planning: coordinating how finished work reaches customers.
Service level expectations
A service level expectation (SLE) states how long an item is likely to take once started, for example "85% of items finish within 10 days". It is calculated from historical cycle times and gives customers a clear, data-based promise.
Forecasting with throughput
To answer "when will these 40 items be done?", Kanban teams use throughput history:
- Simple average: if the team finishes about 8 items a week, 40 items take about 5 weeks.
- Range: using the slowest and fastest recent weeks gives an optimistic and pessimistic date.
- Monte Carlo simulation: sampling past weekly throughput thousands of times produces a probability for each date, such as "85% likely by 14 June".
Planning at scale
When several teams or services interact, Kanban uses operations and strategy reviews to align capacity and priorities. See Kanban cadences.
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Frequently asked questions
Does Kanban planning involve estimating?
Often not in story points. Many Kanban teams split work into similarly sized items and forecast using throughput and cycle time.
What is a commitment point in Kanban planning?
The point on the board after which the team commits to completing an item. Before it, items are options that can be dropped.
How does Kanban planning work without sprints?
Kanban plans continuously. The team replenishes the Ready column regularly, commits to items as capacity frees up, and forecasts dates from historical throughput and cycle time.
What is a service level expectation in Kanban planning?
A service level expectation (SLE) states how long an item is likely to take once started, such as "85% of items finish within 10 days". It is based on historical cycle times.
How do you forecast delivery dates with Kanban planning?
Use past throughput to estimate how many items you finish per week, or run a Monte Carlo simulation on that data to get a probability for each date. Use cycle time percentiles for single items.
What is Monte Carlo forecasting in Kanban planning?
It randomly samples past weekly throughput thousands of times to simulate possible futures, giving answers like "85% likely to finish by 14 June". See Monte Carlo simulation.
In Kanban planning, what is the difference between the backlog and the Ready column?
The backlog holds options that may or may not be done. The Ready column holds the small set of items selected at replenishment, waiting to be pulled when capacity frees up.
Can Kanban planning handle fixed deadlines?
Yes. Use a fixed-date class of service and start items early enough, based on cycle time data, and forecast larger scopes with throughput to check whether the deadline is realistic.
When planning in Kanban, how many items should be in the Ready column?
Enough to keep the team busy until the next replenishment, but no more. Many teams set a WIP limit on Ready so it does not become a second backlog.
Are story points used in Kanban planning?
Some do, but many find counting items and using throughput forecasts simpler and just as accurate, provided items are split to a similar size.
How does Kanban planning handle long-term roadmaps?
Roadmaps sit above the board as goals or larger items, reviewed at strategy and operations reviews. The board then shows how those items flow through delivery.